The worldwide smartphone market is forecast to grow 55% year over year in 2011 as a growing number of users turn in their feature phones for more advanced devices. According to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, vendors will ship a total of 472 million smartphones in 2011 compared to roughly 305 million units shipped in 2010. That figure will nearly double to 982 million by the end of 2015.

The fast-growing smartphone market, which will grow more than four times the rate of the overall mobile phone market this year, is being fuelled by falling average selling prices, increased phone functionality, and lower-cost data plans among other factors, which make the devices more accessible to a wider range of users.

“The smartphone floodgates are open wide,” said Kevin Restivo, senior research analyst with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “Mobile phone users around the world are turning in their ‘talk-and-text’ devices for smartphones as these devices allow users to perform daily tasks like shopping and banking from anywhere. The growth trend is particularly pronounced in emerging markets where adoption is still in its early days. As a result, the growth in regions such as Asia/Pacific and Latin America, will be dramatic over the coming years.

Smartphone Operating Systems

“Underpinning smartphone growth is the rapidly shifting operating system landscape,” added Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst with IDC’s Mobile Phone Technology and Trends team. “End-users are becoming more sophisticated about what kinds of experiences are offered by the different operating systems. Taking this as their cue, operating system developers will strive for more intuitive and seamless experiences, but will also look to differentiate themselves along key features and characteristics.”

IDC expects Android, which passed Symbian as the leading operating system worldwide in Q4 2010, to grow to more than 40% of the market in the second half of 2011. A significant and growing list of vendors who have made Android the cornerstone of their respective smartphone strategies is propelling the growth of Android.

Symbian will steadily lose share throughout the forecast period as its biggest supporter Nokia transitions its smartphone strategy to Windows Phone. This will present a huge opportunity for competing operating systems to gain footing. Still, Nokia’s commitment to support Symbian devices until 2016 will keep the installed base of Symbian-powered smartphone users on par with its competitors.

Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will benefit from Nokia’s support, scope, and breadth within markets where Nokia has historically had a strong presence. Until Nokia begins introducing Windows Phone-powered smartphones in large volumes in 2012, Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will only capture a small share of the market as the release of Mango-powered smartphones are not expected to reach the market until late 2011. Nevertheless, assuming that Nokia’s transition to Windows Phone goes smoothly, the OS is expected to defend a number 2 rank and more than 20% share in 2015.

iOS was the third ranked OS going into 2011 and will remain a force in the mobile phone market throughout the forecast. After an initial explosive growth period, iOS is expected to grow at a more modest pace throughout the latter half of the forecast as the smartphone market matures and diversifies. Although a small market share decline is expected, IDC expects significant overall shipment volume growth through the end of 2015.

BlackBerry OS is expected to maintain its position as a Top 4 smartphone operating system over the forecast period. Like iOS, the BlackBerry OS will experience market share decline even as shipment volumes grow throughout our forecast.

Article from PCB007

Dell will launch its highly anticipated 10-inch tablet in the Chinese market first, based on a emerging belief that the U.S. market isn’t mature enough for a successful Android launch, Dell executives told CNET today.

Dell’s Streak 10 Pro (see specifications below) will launch in China this summer and in the U.S. market probably sometime next year, John Thode, a Dell vice president and manager of Dell’s mobility business, told CNET. The U.S. market simply doesn’t offer a viable 10-inch tablet strategy for Dell, he said.

“This is not an either-or for us. This is a choice about where is the best place to take our story and avoids a bunch of the inhibitors and barriers to success that we’ve seen in the U.S. market,” Thode said. “Things like confusion over what exactly Android is bringing to the table [and] an immature platform and roll out of devices that weren’t quite ready yet.”

Dell markets smaller tablets, such as the Dell Streak 7, and a hybrid product, the Inspiron Duo, in the U.S. but has yet to launch a tablet design that rivals the 9.7-inch iPad from Apple.

“China is the largest in the emerging market category and the second fastest-growing in the emerging market category. And China is also our second largest market right after the U.S.,” said Amit Midha, chairman of Dell Greater China. “The China market in units may cross the U.S. in the next couple of years,” he said, underscoring the importance of the market to Dell.

There are roughly 10,000 stores that sell Dell products in China and, by the end of the this year, there will be 2,000 service centers where customers can bring Dell products, Midha said.

Thode also cited problems at U.S. carriers. “Even simple things like distribution channels that are controlled by the carriers with pricing models that are completely upside down to adoption [of a tablet],” he said about the U.S. market.

He continued. “We looked at all of that and we said, well wait a minute, that instead of trying to swim upstream let’s go someplace where the growth rates are much more interesting, the adoption rates are much faster, the consumer is much more savvy…it became one of those aha moments,” he said, again speaking to the myriad problems in the U.S. Android tablet market.

This sentiment echoes recent criticism of Android tablet launches by Nvidia’s chief executive. Tablets other than the iPad have, so far, not sold well in the U.S. for many of the reasons cited by Thode.

The Dell Streak 10 is Dell’s third tablet product and its first 10-inch Android-based tablet.

Some of the salient specifications of the Google Honeycomb Android tablet are: a thickness of 12 millimeters (0.47 inches), a weight of about 700 grams (about 1.5 pounds), edge-to-edge glass, brushed aluminum back, a 1280-by-800 screen, front and rear facing cameras (including a 5 megapixel camera), full 1080p video playback, an SD slot, and an Nvidia Tegra dual-core processor.

The tablet can also be purchased with a dock that has multiple USB ports, a USB host mode that allows PC-like emulation capabilities, HDMI video, the ability to run separate Citrix sessions on external monitors, and an Ethernet port, among other features.

Article from CNET “The Circuits Blog”

HotPCB has pointed to and written about the relationship between fabricators and designers since our inception.  And we are not the only one speaking to it.  Pete Waddell of UP Media wrote an editorial to the issue of DFM (design for manufacture) failures within our industry earlier this year.  We would like to speak to the issue as well, but not without providing a way to begin fixing the problem.

The issue is that there has been, and will continue to be a disconnect between printed circuit board designers and fabricators.  If you, as a designer, have a firm grasp of the details surrounding the fabrication process, power to you and thank you.  However, if you are a designer and have not spent time learning the process of building boards, I highly recommend it.  Now I understand that the two parties have their areas of expertise, and I am not asking you to do a 9 month apprenticeship in a board shop.  But some research, and using some valuable tools available will be very beneficial to you.  How?  Read on.

Whenever a board comes into our shop, we need to check it for manufacturability and errors.  We use a variety of methods, but one of the key methods is to run the designs through DFM software.  We estimate that about 50% of the jobs we process need to go back to the designer for edits and changes after it has been run through the DFM.  That means we need to call/email the engineer, often leave a message, set up a time to talk about the issues, have them go fix the problems, wait to receive the updated files, assure that we don’t accidentally use the old files, re-check the design files, and then continue on in the production process.  In a quickturn shop, this may take 1-2 days, and I have heard several claim they often see it taking 5-7 days to get this all hashed out.  In a tense, quickturn market, several days means that you have doubled the lead time which was originally possible.  In addition to this, the fabricators are spending a lot of time going back and forth, chasing down engineers, revisions, files, etc.  This is time that is not billed, but in the long run finds its way into your boards because the process is less efficient and is using a lot of man-hours.  And so the designers are delayed in getting their boards, the fabricators are spending a lot of extra time pre-production, and nobody wins.

My hope is that there would be an industry wide shift in mentality toward an attitude of responsibility on the part of all to check for manufacturability.  I believe that it ultimately rests on designers to begin this change, and recognize that they can run preliminary DFM checks on their designs.  It takes very little time to run it, especially compared to several days of back and forth with the fabricator.  With designers running preliminary checks, and fabricators running secondary checks, the process will grow to be more seamless and productive.

One company in the marketplace who has narrowed in on this issue is Intercept Technology.  Their top-end software contains a DFM program, and their goal right now is to make it as accessible to designers as possible.  In fact, for a limited time it is free.  I recommend this to everyone within the industry.  This is an incredibly valuable tool for designers.  Together we can help each other accomplish our goals and increase in efficiency.  Designers will get their boards more quickly, fabricators will be able to spend more time improving their processes and building boards, and greater understanding/collaboration will be fostered between both.

Do you have a DFM nightmare story?  Or a success story?  Please feel free to comment below.  Maybe you think this is all hot air and unnecessary.  I’d like to hear what you have to say.

Blackjack II

As the keys begin to stick on my Samsung Blackjack II, and I think about how the navigation wheel used to spin freely, I remember the days of my Siemens M56. That little phone was built like a tiny brick, and it withstood the harshest abuse. Whether we were swimming in saltwater or it was falling off the top of my moving car, my little phone never complained, remained tough, and always worked. It was a sad day when, after three and a half years, I had to “upgrade” to a Motorola Razr.

M56

While the M56 was tough, it was never tested or designed as a “rugged” device. I was very fortunate it survived, but for those whose lives rely upon the dependability of their electronics, chance does not satisfy. Many manufacturers have recognized the need for electronics able to withstand the harshest of environments, and have designed “rugged” products for use in situations as diverse as the battle field to deep freezers.

But how rugged is the “rugged” classification? Please comment below if you feel that I am far off…

What I have found has not surprised me. It seems that just as I can tell you I am really strong; unless you ask me how much I can bench-press, you really have no idea how true my claims of strength are. And even if I tell you how much I can lift, you are not sure if I am telling the truth. The same seems true for the classification of “rugged” within the electronics industry. Many have self-certified their products as rugged, or have developed internal testing procedures under which they qualify their products. So how do you know what you are getting, and how do you know which rugged product to buy? Let’s dig further.

The very first step you should complete is to determine exactly in what environment your product will be operating. Some of the various standards/tests include: low pressure altitude testing, high and low temperatures, rain (freezing and penetrating), various forms of shock (both while in operation and while off), humidity, growths (fungus, algae, rust), sand and dust, accelerations, explosions, and various types of vibration. As you can imagine, every product will meet different standard within each of these categories. And while phone A may be “rugged” when it relates to salt-water, phone B may be “rugged” as it relates to extreme temperatures.

Fortunately there are various standards in place for the testing of products as it relates to rugged use. The MIL-STD-810 (Department of Defense Test Method Standard for Environmental Engineering Considerations and Laboratory Tests) is a 500+ page document
(open at your own risk, it’s big) outlining the chamber test methods necessary to use when certifying a product to be rugged in a particular application for military use. This standard can be tailored for commercial use, and many products advertise that they meet MIL-STD-810 standards in various settings. For example, you will notice that the Olympus Stylus-Tough 8000 is MIL-STD-810 certified to certain levels as it relates to shock and temperature. But just because it’s rated as rugged does not mean you should take it onto the water slide (although in this case you can… see the video on this page).

Some companies certify themselves to the MIL-STD-810 standards, while others use outside auditing organizations to confirm their claims. If it were me, I would always require an external auditing organization to confirm the claims made (especially if the product is protecting the life of someone). Some companies have developed and branded their own systems of rugged classification. For instance, Sonim cell phones adhere to the “Rugged Performance Standards” set in place by Sonim. Take a look at the video. It is pretty neat. Though again, always make sure that an outside agency has substantiated the claims made by the manufacturer.

So just as I will tell you that I am very strong, and you would ask me to qualify my statements; so too should you always seek to qualify the statements made in regards to the rugged nature of various electronics. What do you need it to withstand? What standards does it claim to adhere to? Have those claims been substantiated by an outside agent?

Enjoy!

A little over a  month ago I applied for membership with IEEE and joined a variety of societies pertaining to my line of business.  However, I have yet to really feel the benefit of membership aside from the barrage of emails asking me to sign up for conferences.  In an effort to effectively use my membership, I open the floor to you – my reader and potential IEEE confederate.  How have you taken advantage of the various services IEEE offers?  Has it been an effective networking/educational tool for you?  Share your story of how it has been a blessing – or a bust.

All the best,

Liam

In response to the great comment below:

Ironically, I find the electronics manufacturing industry is be one of the most DISengaged when it comes to taking full advantage of the benefits of social media, including LinkedIn.

As an industry, electronics manufacturing is wrapped in a culture of trade secrecy where competitive advantage is frequently tied to technical prowess and time to market. This environment doesn’t lend itself to the philosophy of sharing and transparency that permeates most productive social networks.

This “close to the vest” culture is frequently reinforced by strict limitations on outward communications, especially with regard to anything that might be construed as a company IP.

I tried mightily to create community within LinkedIn while I was in the PCB industry but even within my own company, it was easier for most industry veterans to fall back into their comfort zone than to embrace the opportunity born of engaging in communities based on sharing and collaboration.

Consequently, you’ll find the most ubiquitous industry presence on LinkedIn, but not because anybody wants to give anything, but just in case they need a job.

**Posted as a response to “Best and Worst LinkedIn Groups for PCB Enthusiasts” by Don Lafferty

Response:

Don,

I agree with you, that the EMS industry is rather disjointed and slow to adopt social media and collaborative tools.  This permeates a majority of the industry, although I would argue that there are some who are more inclined to take advantage of the amazing tools which have been developed in the last ten years.  It seems to me that Small, R&D focused, high technology companies are comprised more and more of individuals who have a much stronger grasp and reliance upon social media.  As young professionals enter the workforce, this trend will continue to develop.

LinkedIn bothers me often, because it does feel like the majority of people involved are there for themselves.  Whether it is to network a new job opportunity, or to sell their products – each person has an underlying motivation for being on LinkedIn.  I too fell into this trap when I first began using the network.  However, if everyone is taking, and no one is giving… you will end up with a stagnant social environment in which few win, and clutter consumes.

What are some of the ways that you sought to create a community on LinkedIn and within your company?  It must be possible to somehow, tactfully, develop a vibrant collaborative community of high-technology professionals who can set the tone for the industry in the fifty years to come.

Others, feel free to comment or to submit responses to me.  My contact information is in the author bio page.

It is amazing how flexible circuits allow intricate and complex electronics continue to decrease in size.  As flex and rigid-flex are developed, unique applications will continue to arise.  This picture really makes you wonder how complex in the inner workings of our most common, taken for granted, electronics are.